WebinarOnline
Forecasting the future of travel: Economic models, policy impacts and navigating global uncertainties
Friday, 22 January 2027
Explore how economic forecasting, scenario planning and transparent assumptions can help tourism decision makers interpret uncertainty, test policy choices and prepare destinations and businesses for several plausible futures.
About this event
Travel forecasting influences investment, transport capacity, destination planning and public policy. Yet predictions are increasingly tested by climate disruption, geopolitical tension, changing consumer expectations and rapid technological development. This webinar examines how economic models can support better decisions when historical patterns no longer provide a reliable guide. It introduces forecasting as a disciplined process of reasoning under uncertainty, rather than a promise of precision.
Attention will be given to demand modelling, scenario planning, sensitivity analysis and the interpretation of leading indicators. The discussion will consider how data quality, model assumptions and time horizons shape results. It will also explore why apparently robust forecasts can fail when sudden shocks, structural changes or policy interventions alter the relationships on which projections depend.
The session connects analytical methods with practical questions facing governments, destinations and tourism businesses. How should planners evaluate competing forecasts? Which risks deserve explicit treatment? How can policymakers distinguish short-lived volatility from longer-term change? Participants will consider how evidence can inform choices about infrastructure, workforce needs, taxation, environmental limits and market development without concealing uncertainty.
Ultimately, responsible forecasting requires transparency, intellectual humility and regular revision. The webinar will outline ways to communicate ranges, assumptions and alternative scenarios clearly to decision makers and affected communities. It will encourage a shift from single-point predictions towards adaptive strategies that remain useful across several plausible futures. The aim is to strengthen preparedness while recognising that economic modelling supports judgement, but cannot replace it. Used well, forecasts become tools for learning, coordination and timely action.