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Forecasting the future of travel: Economic models, policy impacts and navigating global uncertainties
WebinarOnline

Forecasting the future of travel: Economic models, policy impacts and navigating global uncertainties

  • 14:00–14:45 UK time45 minutes
  • Online, on Zoom, inside ScholardemiaRegister, then join on this page from 13:50. How to join
  • Convened by Prof. Eugenia WickensOrganised by Scholardemia

Learn how forecasts and scenarios can support tourism decisions without hiding uncertainty or promising false precision.

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About this event

Speaker update, 2 October 2026: Speakers will be announced once confirmed.
Forecasts influence hotel investment, transport capacity, workforce planning, municipal budgets and national tourism policy. Geopolitical disruption, economic volatility, public health emergencies and climate shocks demonstrate the limitations of relying on a single estimate of future demand. This webinar examines demand modelling, scenario planning, sensitivity analysis and leading indicators. It will explain how different methods answer different questions and why uncertainty should be represented directly rather than concealed behind an apparently precise headline figure.
Panellists will consider data quality, model assumptions, forecasting horizons and the interpretation of probability ranges. The discussion will examine how structural change can be distinguished from temporary market fluctuation and how policy interventions may alter the behaviour that a forecast attempts to predict. Participants will compare baseline projections with alternative scenarios and stress tests. Attention will also be given to missing data, false precision and the organisational pressures that encourage decision makers to favour confident estimates over conditional evidence.
Participants will learn practical techniques for embedding forecasts within adaptive planning. They will consider how to document assumptions, identify variables with the greatest influence and set review points as new information becomes available. The session will also address clear communication with investors, public authorities and communities whose decisions may be affected by projected demand. Delegates will leave better able to evaluate model outputs, explain uncertainty and use forecasting as a disciplined aid to judgement rather than a substitute for strategic responsibility. This approach supports decisions that remain proportionate when evidence is incomplete and external conditions are changing rapidly.

How to join

This webinar runs on Zoom. You join it here on Scholardemia, where the meeting opens inside the page with the chat, questions and polls beside it. You do not need a Zoom account or a Zoom link.

  1. RegisterFree, with your Scholardemia account.
  2. Come back on the dayThe room opens at 13:50 on Friday 25 June. We email you reminders with the Join button 24 hours and 1 hour before.
  3. Press JoinSign in with the same account. The meeting opens here, with questions, polls and the group chat beside it.

Use an up-to-date Chrome, Edge, Safari or Firefox. Allow sound when your browser asks, and use headphones if you can.

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Forecasting the future of travel: Economic models, policy impacts and navigating global uncertainties

WebinarOnlineSession 29 of 29

Learn how forecasts and scenarios can support tourism decisions without hiding uncertainty or promising false precision.

  • 14:00–14:45 UK time13:00 UTC
  • Online, on Zoom, inside Scholardemia · 45 minutesRegister, then join on this page from 13:50. How to join
  • Convened by Prof. Eugenia WickensOrganised by Scholardemia

About this webinar

Speaker update, 2 October 2026: Speakers will be announced once confirmed.
Forecasts influence hotel investment, transport capacity, workforce planning, municipal budgets and national tourism policy. Geopolitical disruption, economic volatility, public health emergencies and climate shocks demonstrate the limitations of relying on a single estimate of future demand. This webinar examines demand modelling, scenario planning, sensitivity analysis and leading indicators. It will explain how different methods answer different questions and why uncertainty should be represented directly rather than concealed behind an apparently precise headline figure.
Panellists will consider data quality, model assumptions, forecasting horizons and the interpretation of probability ranges. The discussion will examine how structural change can be distinguished from temporary market fluctuation and how policy interventions may alter the behaviour that a forecast attempts to predict. Participants will compare baseline projections with alternative scenarios and stress tests. Attention will also be given to missing data, false precision and the organisational pressures that encourage decision makers to favour confident estimates over conditional evidence.
Participants will learn practical techniques for embedding forecasts within adaptive planning. They will consider how to document assumptions, identify variables with the greatest influence and set review points as new information becomes available. The session will also address clear communication with investors, public authorities and communities whose decisions may be affected by projected demand. Delegates will leave better able to evaluate model outputs, explain uncertainty and use forecasting as a disciplined aid to judgement rather than a substitute for strategic responsibility. This approach supports decisions that remain proportionate when evidence is incomplete and external conditions are changing rapidly.

How to join

This webinar runs on Zoom. You join it here on Scholardemia, where the meeting opens inside the page with the chat, questions and polls beside it. You do not need a Zoom account or a Zoom link.

  1. RegisterFree, with your Scholardemia account.
  2. Come back on the dayThe room opens at 13:50 on Friday 25 June. We email you reminders with the Join button 24 hours and 1 hour before.
  3. Press JoinSign in with the same account. The meeting opens here, with questions, polls and the group chat beside it.

Use an up-to-date Chrome, Edge, Safari or Firefox. Allow sound when your browser asks, and use headphones if you can.

Convenor

Prof. Eugenia Wickens

Convenor

OTS Academy

United Kingdom

Professor Eugenia Wickens edits the Journal On Tourism & Sustainability (JOTS) and the Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Education (JTHE), and chairs Scholardemia webinar sessions. Her research covers tourist experience and typologies, tourism routes and rural development, volunteer tourism, and event and cultural tourism. Formerly Reader in Tourism at Buckinghamshire New University, she has helped plan tourism education in Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Nepal, Serbia, Greece, Ireland and Turkey.

Scholardemia profileORCIDGoogle Scholar

Organised by Scholardemia.

Committee

Organising Committee

Operational leadership and event delivery team.

Prof. Eugenia Wickens

Convenor

OTS Academy

United Kingdom

Professor Eugenia Wickens edits the Journal On Tourism & Sustainability (JOTS) and the Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Education (JTHE), and chairs Scholardemia webinar sessions. Her research covers tourist experience and typologies, tourism routes and rural development, volunteer tourism, and event and cultural tourism. Formerly Reader in Tourism at Buckinghamshire New University, she has helped plan tourism education in Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Nepal, Serbia, Greece, Ireland and Turkey.

Scholardemia profileORCIDGoogle Scholar

Scholardemia

Organizer

Event committee

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Earlier in this series

All 29 sessions
  1. Fri 28 May09:00Beyond greenwashing: Aligning consumer ethics with corporate sustainability in hospitality marketingSession 25
  2. Fri 4 Jun13:00Climate-resilient tourism: From academic models to on-the-ground innovation in luxury eco-resortsSession 26
  3. Fri 11 Jun09:00Cultural tourism at a crossroads: Authentic Indigenous experiences, commodification and critical dialogueSession 27
  4. Fri 18 Jun09:00The smart tourism revolution: AI, e-tourism and the future of personalised travel experiencesSession 28